http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/08/how-water-shortages-lead-food-crises-conflicts
The link goes to one of an increasing number of articles about the scarcity of water, the conclusion of which was:
„The world faces a water crisis that will touch every part of the globe, a point that has been stressed by Jean Chrétien, former Canadian prime minister and co-chair of the InterAction Council. “The future political impact of water scarcity may be devastating,” he said. “Using water the way we have in the past simply will not sustain humanity in future.”
and, as is usual in The Guardian, it attracted a number of comments. One of the more interesting was:
„This is yet another article that assumes that the source of a resource that’s currently used because it’s cheapest is the only source, and that therefore if the cheapest source is fully utilised then no more is available. Actually, what happens is that a slightly more expensive source becomes economically viable to exploit, and life goes on with slightly higher prices. It happened with oil (shale oil became viable) and phosphorus (guano deposits were depleted so it’s now mostly mined), and it will happen with water (desalination is not actually very expensive, especially in areas with lots of sunshine for solar power, which fortunately happen to also be the most water-stressed areas — it’s around £1 per cubic metre of water, and I currently pay £1.80 per cubic metre anyway). Pipelines to move water inland from the coast are also pretty cheap.“
The author says the world is facing a water crisis and we cannot go on using water the way we have done in the past. The commenter says water is not scarce – there may be a scarcity of cheap drinkable water, but not a scarcity of water as such. And producing drinkable water through desalination is a viable solution to the problem of scarcity.
And this argument more or less pulls the carpet out from under the feet of the article’s argument.
In dealing with scarcity there are only really two approaches – increase the supply or reduce the demand. And reducing demand would mean severely curtailing our comfortable lifestyle, so we are naturally biased towards any suggestion of a way to increase the supply.
Consequently, it will be difficult to persuade us to take painful action unless we accept some fact or interpretation of reality as being intransigent. Only if we are convinced we are going to run into a brick wall, will we accept that we have a problem we must solve.
If, on the other hand, we question the intransigence of certain facts, like the scarcity of water, we are undermining our will to change our lifestyle.
So the fundamental question becomes – is there any such intransigent fact, some stubborn aspect of reality, some fundamental scarcity, that cannot be overcome?
Now we can take the next step in the argument, illustrated by the second poster.
Ttimgg:
„Some quick back of the envelope calculations – please correct me if I am wrong!
In the UK each person consumes 3.4 m3 per day including embedded water in food and products. We need 3kwh to desalinate one m3. So our water energy consumption of desalination would be 10kwh per day. For comparison, our total electricity use in the UK is around 14kwh per day, so we would need to nearly double our national electricity supply.
One m2 of solar panels can produce 0.5 kwh per day (high efficiency panels in a hot climate) So to desalinate our water we would need about 20 square metres of solar panels each. That is quite a lot. Not impossible – but quite a lot.
So I conclude that solar desalination is not impossible but not easy, given that we are going to find it very hard to match even our current electricity supply with renewables.“
What the poster is doing is to shift the argument to where it ought to have been anyway. The real debate has never been about scarcity, at least not of such things as water or air. The supply of drinkable water can, theoretically or conceivably, be increased significantly. The real question is whether a hypothetical solution can be turned into a practicable solution. And the second poster has his doubts – as he puts it, „not impossible but not easy“.
Now the first poster will not agree at all with the idea that his solution – desalination – is hypothetical. It works, it has been shown to work and it is working. Therefore what the second poster is arguing is that the solution will not scale up. In order to argue that this solution is not a practicable solution we must therefore argue that between the present scale and the necessary scale there is a barrier that cannot be overcome.
What then could this barrier be? Well, not being an expert on solar energy I can only speculate, but then that is exactly the point. We wanted a principled debate about the need of mankind to reduce its consumption of water down to sustainable levels given the explosive nature of water scarcity. We wanted everyone to agree that in certain areas water is scarce and this scarcity is a serious problem. A „we’ve got to do something about it“ problem.
And then up comes some bright spark and says „Water – scarce? No way“. And, of course, he is right. There’s water all over the place, just most drops are not for drinking. But well that’s not a problem. There is a happy collusion of water scarcity and sun abundance which leads us directly to the solution – desalination. Ah, says the second poster, not so quick – have you really thought this through – we’re talking about a big scale operation here. That’s an awful lot of solar panels you’re talking about.
And now we reach an impasse in the debate, it has lost all its clarity and more importantly its power to convict.
Which brings us back to the opening argument. It would seem as if only incontrovertible evidence of hard limits to the availability of water will convince us to change our lifestyle. Only stark evidence that our liberal use of water will cause thirst in other less privileged parts of the world might persuade us to change our ways. Otherwise its business as usual.
So, apparently, there is no positive argument for moderation, no restraining ourselves to what we could reasonably need, no operative concept of enough.
For the moment I will leave it a that – even if it seems to be a rather disturbing picture of ourselves as practically incapable of restraint.
